Market Risk Report as of September 4, 2023

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

General improvement in the markets in August felt pretty good. September 1st was given over to headlines about it also being good, but one day doesn’t make a month or a quarter. We’ll see how the rest of September, 2023 and the 3rd Quarter finishes before we send in the cheer leaders.

For now we see the SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator in its neutral range, which represents 80% of the total database for the MRI since 1982.

Upside potential remains constrained by valuations relative to the “risk free rate of return” present in the 13 Week Treasury Rate of 5.5%. Good news is we’re seeing a treasury rate that is finally in excess of the CPI Inflation Rate.

Personally, I remember Mr. Volker’s actions to contain high inflation during the ‘80s and how it affected the general business climate. It may have been those actions that changed my own direction and pushed me toward a career in investing. So, it may take a while to see how the economy, businesses and stock markets respond to this more normal state.

Best regards,

Tom Veale

Our Market Risk Indicator remained unchanged this week at 31. The MRI Oscillator moved to +1 indicating only minor upward market risk pressure. Currently two components are showing caution with one neutral and one showing a proactive stance.

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