From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,
Even the least humble prognosticators have been confused during the month of March. As we see the end of the 1st quarter of 2023 come to a close we find the Market Risk Indicator essentially unchanged from the end of February and the first of the year. It’s now been three years since the Covid-19 market dip so we’ve trimmed the MRI to start in 2021 this week.
Personally I won’t miss 2020 and chaos created by the Covid experience. Let’s hope those in charge of the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury learned something from that experience. In the mean time we will have to live with some of the unintended consequences of their actions.
We note that trimming the MRI histogram has highlighted some of the rather risky time we saw during 2021 and the abatement of risk that was experienced in 2022 as markets declined. It would seem the markets are in a better place now. We continue to manage our SignalPoint Portfolio Strategies with great care.
The MRI stayed at 32 this week while the MRI Oscillator is now minus 1 and not showing much risk pressure. Three components rose in risk profile this week but not my any significant amount. The net effect seems to be steady risk while the markets sort themselves out.