Market Risk Report as of April 11, 2022

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

Last week’s market activity did soften the various risk factors we measure. While all four risk components eased in their respective ranges, three remain at or near their bearish ranges. Only our Speculation Index remains neutral. The summary is shown in our histogram:

It can be seen that this latest rise in our Market Risk Indicator coincides with a flattening of the S&P 500 Index. Investors seem to sense the elevated risk and are being a bit more cautious than a year ago when market risk was similar to now.
Activity inside our various portfolio strategies has been toward accumulation of shares of various income components in the mid to long maturity ranges. The 26 week Treasury Coupon Rate is 1.182%/Yr as of last week’s close. The outstanding 10 year notes have been sold off to the point where their effective yield is now 2.715%/Yr.
Utilities and Energy have remained strong with safety and supply issues being primary movers. The energy sector had been quite low on cash reserves for a long time. 2022 has seen this sector improve and that has allowed for refunding of reserves as prices have been rising.
Best regards,
Tom Veale
SignalPoint’s MRI comes in one point higher at 41 this week. The MRI Oscillator dropped to +6 showing reduced upward risk pressure from a week ago.

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