Market Risk Report as of May 30, 2022

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

“Sell May, Go Away”

Frequently we heard this chant

Can we come back now?

As it turned out, May wasn’t the most pleasant month for many investors. Those who had carried margin positions into the month had a “new calling” by month’s end. Some may have followed the above chant and lessened the unpleasantness but now have to look for a new home for their investable assets. Our SignalPoint Process had us shift some of our cash reserves to the invested side as markets contracted. Clearly we do things differently.

While last week closed strongly it wasn’t enough to undo the YTD and 12 Month damage we see in the market indexes. Just two of the S&P 500 business sectors currently have a YTD gain. Energy up 61% and Utilities up 6%. And who would have guessed at the end of last year that Information Technology sector would be the worst performer at the end of May, down 18.8% YTD. Through all of this SignalPoint’s Market Risk Indicator (MRI) has seen through the fatty tissues down to the bones and sinew to give us a better view.

The MRI isn’t saying we’re back to a low risk market but it does show how far the markets needed to contract just to get near median risk levels. The combination of a clear view of risk along with a Process that assesses stock inventory levels has been good council in 2022.
Here on the last day of May, 2022 it is still only the half way point for those who tally their investments annually. The market risk moving forward from here is less than it was at the year’s start.
Best regards,
Tom Veale
Three of the MRI’s components are neutral as of this week. Only Relative Valuation remains somewhat on the high side but far better than a month ago. No change was seen in the MRI’s calculation this week as it remains at 30. The MRI Oscillator is at zero indicating no upward or downward pressure on market risk.

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