Market Risk Report as of March 28, 2022

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

It’s never pleasant to report our Market Risk Indicator rising. Yet it is again this week. Rising speculation, divergence opinion and valuations this week pushed the MRI upward once again.

The rather steep recovery from recent lows seems somewhat unjustified with ill news still coming from the beleaguered cities of Ukraine. Energy costs are still excessively high compared to the start of the year and other commodity costs are still soaring. Was the market first over-sold when the Russia – Ukraine conflict started and is now just rebounding?
For our SignalPoint strategies we’re pleased to see Utilities, Financials and Energy still doing well for the year-to-date. However, the heavy cap weighting of the Communication Services, Info Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors tips the index scales slightly downward for the year. Our Strategies have been following the direction of the various sectors and responding appropriately – buying discounted sectors and raising defensive cash in those thriving ones.
Best regards,
Tom Veale
The MRI comes in at 39 this week up another two points and well above the median risk level since 1982. The MRI Oscillator is +12 indicating severe upward risk pressure right now. Three components are now in their own bearish territories while one remains neutrally ranked.

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