Market Risk Report as of March 13, 2023

Tom Veale
March 13, 2023

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

A haiku came to mind this AM. It so happened to be a title of a book written in the 1800s.

“Extraordinary

Popular Delusions And

The Madness Of Crowds”

This graphic seemed to match well:

SVB told us a couple of years ago, “It’s Crypto! You can Bank on it!”

This week’s Market Risk Indicator shows no change with the nervousness in the market place.

The MRI remains on the border of the Caution territory with stock valuations relative to current interest rates being the main concern. The 13 Week Treasury Coupon Rate hovers just under 5% now which is far better than the S&P 500 or the Value Line median yields (just over 2%/Yr). Opportunity Risk is being evaluated against the ‘risk free rate of return’ on cash. The market participants remain undecided.

We continue our opportunistic activity in our core portfolio Strategies. The Financial Sector dropped enough to bring the ETF price into our target purchase range. Energy sector companies forming that ETF also have declined enough to trigger some modest accumulation of shares. As these target prices are reached we will be continuing to add to the Strategy’s positions.

Best regards,
Tom Veale

The MRI comes in at 33 this week while the MRI Oscillator is +3 (mild upward risk pressure). Relative Valuation remains unchanged while Speculation and Divergence both dropped small amounts. Our IPO/New Issues index is essentially unchanged and shows a healthy trend.

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