Market Risk Report as of February 27, 2023

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

It has become very hard to filter weekly economic news from opinion. We, at SignalPoint, attempt to only trade opportunistically over the long term. When market prices and market risk are lower, we are usually in share accumulation mode. The mirror of that is also true as we build our cash war chest for the next market cycle.

Currently our Market Risk Indicator is on the high end of its ‘neutral’ range and nearing one full standard deviation from its median value. 8 of the 12 positions in our U.S. Sector ETF portfolio are within 10% of their “next sell target” where we will reduce share inventory. The last four are closer to their “next buy target” prices. Share inventory is steady for now as we watch and wait for reality to offer a clearer picture of the near future. In the mean time the Signal 10 Portfolio Strategy continues to collect paid dividends on the Equity side and, finally, some measurable yield on the Cash side. After all, the design is for Total Return over Time.
In contrast to the headlines during February so far the Signal 10 Portfolio Strategy has continued upward adding onto the January 2023 gains. We continue to keep the Information Noise Filter turned to Maximum.
Best regards,
Tom Veale
This week we see the MRI rise another point to 32 and the MRI Oscillator come in at +4. The Oscillator suggests there is some upward risk pressure building and we see 3 of the four MRI components rising this week. One remains unchanged.

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