Market Risk Report as of February 20, 2023

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From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

A week on the beach in Nuevo Vallarta did this northerner some good. I manufactured some Vitamin D, practiced my minimal Spanish and body surfed for the first time in years (decades!). My Spanish accent is fading faster than my tan, however.

Not much changed to a great degree while I was away. SignalPoint’s Market Risk Indicator (MRI) continues to measure only moderately above median risk while the markets sort out January’s gains. One MRI component remains cautious while another remains at a healthy level. Our IPO/New Issues Index continues to show a contraction in the number of stock issues available (bullish) while interest rate and inflation pressures continue to keep our Relative Valuation Index on the cautious side.
The S&P 500, Dow 30 and Nasdaq Composite all have been rather flattish in recent weeks. Current events seem to push the indexes around a bit on a daily basis but the longer view is steady. Looking at our stock strategies we find some continuing sector rotation in the U.S. Domestic ETFs while we see some consolidation in Ex U.S. strategies where small and midcap ETFs have been strong since the start of 2023.
Best regards,
Tom Veale

Our MRI rose one point to 31 a week ago and is still there this week. The MRI Oscillator shows a +3 indicating only modest upward risk pressure. Three components dropped slightly in risk assessment this week while the Divergence Index rose slightly. Of note this week is the 13 Week Treasury Coupon Rate as of last Friday coming in at 4.802. This should help savers as these rates roll into Money Market Funds over the next quarter.

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