Market Risk Report as of February 15, 2021

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

“Yet another week of markets rising while facing continued bearish risk pressure. Three of the Market Risk Indicator’s four components rose slightly in their own profiles while one declined. Overall, the MRI is unchanged at 42 this week with the MRI Oscillator being +4 or showing upward risk pressure.

We have to admit feeling a bit like Chicken Little here. However, the MRI has never been a device for claiming “The Sky Is Falling.” Rather, the MRI when bearish suggests lower than average forward returns up to a year out. At this point those expectations have yet to be realized. Our Speculation Index, Relative Valuation and IPO Activity Indexes all remain bearish for now.”

Best regards,

Tom Veale



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