Market Risk Report as of February 14, 2022

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

“Even Covid-19 couldn’t keep Long Investors from winning the super bowl of investing over the last two years. Those who stayed the course and/or increased their Long positions have done very well over that time. A tsunami  of new domestic money plus significant exUS money inflows helped to buoy the major indexes to new records upon new records. With FED tides shifting has the future investment sea become choppy?

SignalPoint’s Market Risk Indicator actually shows risk moderating as the S&P 500 has paused. While still above median value it is well below its peak risk level of 2021. Investor consensus is lower and daily wind shifts seem more prevalent. We’re keeping plenty of canvas up as we navigate the Straits of Monetization.
Best regards,
Tom Veale

The MRI comes in unchanged at 36 this week with an MRI Oscillator of -1. The low Oscillator value indicates very low risk reduction pressure right now. Our Divergence Index rose this week but remains neutral while our Speculation Index put in another week of being somewhat bullish. Of note this week it takes just a 22% gain over recent 13 weeks to get one’s stock listed on Value Line’s “Best Performers” list while a -43% loss is required for a company to make their “Worst Performers” list. We consider this to be another indication of money flowing away from equities or at least being more cautious. New 52 Week Lows outnumbered new highs by a 7:1 margin last week.”

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