Market Risk Report as of December 12, 2022

Tom Veale
December 12, 2022

From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale,

While the Market Risk Indicator had been in its neutral range for about six months, it has now turned upward, returning to its cautionary zone. Market investor confusion, tax loss selling and rising valuations continue to plague the markets. This appears to have placed a upper ceiling above where stock indexes travel for now.

Last week’s trading showed weak market breadth with declining stocks outnumbering advancing issues by over 2:1 ratio. New 52 Week Lows outnumbered new Highs substantially as well. This feels mostly like Year End and Quarter End trading. That magical calendar turnover is not far away now.

We monitor the levels of reserve cash along with buying and selling opportunities as the markets shift around. An extensive business sector rotation has offered some recent “round trip” trading. Cautious deployment of cash and share inventory distribution may continue into the New Year.

Best regards,
Tom Veale

The MRI remains at 34, unchanged this week with an MRI Oscillator showing +4 (modest upward risk pressure). Two components remain in their own cautionary ranges while two are neutral. Three rose and one declined in risk posture this last week.

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