From Chief Investment Officer Tom Veale, “
It’s not often we see the Advance/Decline weekly numbers as dismal as we had at last Friday’s close. On the NYSE we saw declining stocks outnumber advancers by 4:1 and on the NASDAQ Comp by almost 5:1. Further, new 52 Week Highs were outnumbered by New Lows by 20:1 on the NYSE and about 10:1 on the NASDAQ. Here’s what “Cumulative Breadth” looks like as of the Friday close:
Our Market Risk Indicator is sensitive to this sort of action and this week shows 3 of the four MRI components moving downward in risk assessment. The 4th was only up slightly. Overall, it kept the MRI at the same level as the previous week:
The MRI remains in its neutral range but above its long term median value. Much like checking a patient’s pulse, it’s a great way to verify the patient is still alive, but isn’t necessarily of much predictive value. Even so, we can see some good if we look at how the inflation value has at least flattened out. It’s still well above what the FED thinks is the comfort level of 2% to 3% but at least seems to have stopped climbing for now.
The SignalPoint Process triggered activity in many of our investment strategies where share prices fell to the latest buy target levels. Most positions have been in their respective hold zones since the June lows. We continue to monitor residual cash levels as we search for opportunities to rebuild share inventories from distributions done during 2021.
Our Relative Valuation Index fell with the decline in average P/E seen in Value Line. It’s still about 1 point above its neutral territory but is some better. The other three components of the MRI are neutral and below median value. The MRI comes in unchanged at 30 but the MRI Oscillator dropped from +7 to zero. Trimming upward risk pressure feels good after last week’s action.