Weekly Risk Report 04/20/2009
For the first time in 23 weeks our i-Wave has risen enough to be showing above the zero mark. All four components of the IW rose this week with one returning to its Neutral zone. The other three remain in their own Bullish territory. Overall, while risk remains statistically very low, we have seen several weeks of excellent stock market performance. Some consolidation is probably a healthy event.
As mentioned in earlier editions, the incredibly quick turn in consumer spending in the 4th quarter of ’08 didn’t really show up in corporate earnings results last year. Now we’re beginning to see just how grim it was for businesses. 1st Quarter results will show a portion of the earnings damage that occurred. As I said before, even the most astute business manager couldn’t have foreseen such a dramatic shift in spending patterns.
Because quarterly results are rearward looking, these unhappy reports are looking more at the past than the future. Consumers have started to return to a higher level of purchasing and the economic engine is at least idling along.
The SignalPoint process has been busy in the last few weeks. We’ve seen a variety of our portfolios starting to trade to capture some of the more recent improved prices. Slowly we’re starting to see the Cash Reserve side of our portfolios rebuild. Modest selling has occurred in several business sectors.
Of our three goals, Price Appreciation over time, Dividend Capture over time and Profitable Volatility Capture over time two have been contributing to results in the 1st quarter. Price appreciation takes time but we’ve sewn the necessary seeds.
